Cost of Floods on Pakistan’s Economy

Javeria Niazi

лют. 2014 р. · Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag)

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With an average annual rainfall of less than 240 mm, Pakistan is one of the most arid countries in the world. Every year, during the monsoon season from July to September, Pakistan experiences heavy rainfalls. However, this year the substantial amount of unexpected monsoon rainfall resulted in heavy floods as a consequence of the absence of adequate infrastructure (dams, barrages, reservoirs). The heavy rainfall started in the last week of July 2010, and continued for days in the regions of Balochistan, followed closely by a second spell in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). The rain continued until the first few days of August 2010, causing tremendous damage to both property and lives. The heavy rainfall flooded the already flooded rivers and streams, causing the river banks to burst. The flood water started causing destruction in KPK, and continued its journey towards Punjab and Sindh. The floods in Pakistan have had an impact on all the sectors of the economy. Handling these problems would require a model that could simultaneously capture the major relations among different sectors of the economy, and thereby, trace through the indirect and secondary effects on the economy. The model used to calculate the impact is subjected to a number of simulations that are run on E-views. In this study, the author uses a model that reports clearly what Pakistan will face in terms of production loss and recovery. The results are assessed on the basis of past data and the current situation in the country. The author's main purpose is to define the costs Pakistan faces in such a situation, and further, to develop policy recommendations.

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The author has an undergraduate in BSc. (Hons) in Economics from Kinnaird College for Women Lahore. During her studies she was part of the college hockey team. This led her to the chance to play in the national hockey championship as part of the Lahore Team in 2007, and the Pakistan Railways Club Team in 2010. After her undergraduate studies, she did an MS in Public Policy at Beaconhouse National University. Being on the Dean’s Honour List, earned her an opportunity to work as a Research Associate at the Institute of Public Policy, Beaconhouse National University. Here, she got the chance to work on different projects with the RIS India, DFID, Planning Commmission of Pakistan, UNDP and the GIZ Pakistan. Moreover, she published a paper on 'Infrastructure and Growth' in the Annual Conference at PIDE Islamabad. Later, her interests and volunteer work at Akhuwat, an interest free microfinace organization, inspired her to write an article on how Akhuwat is empowering women through its micro financing. This article was published in 'Money Matters', 'The News International in 2012'. Currently, she is working at the Centre of Public Policy and Governance, Forman Christian College Lahore. In collaboration with the USIP and the government of Punjab, Pakistan, she helps to develop a 'Framework for Youth Policy and De-radicalization' in Pakistan.