Ocean Circulation and Climate: Chapter 27. Sea-Level and Ocean Heat-Content Change, Edition 2

John A. Church · Neil J. White · Catia M. Domingues · Didier P. Monselesan · Elaine R. Miles

oct 2013 · International Geophysics Libro 103 · Elsevier Inc. Chapters

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The ocean has the largest heat capacity in the climate system and as a result the ocean plays a critical role in the climate. Changes in ocean heat content dominate the Earth’s energy storage; and the ocean’s thermal expansion has been a major contributor to sea-level rise in the twentieth century and likely to be the largest contributor in the twenty-first century. The agreement between changes in ocean heat storage over recent decades and changes in the Earth’s radiative balance, within uncertainties, provides strong support for current understanding of anthropogenic climate change. As a result of improvements in observations and modeling of sea level and components contributing to sea-level change, there is now an improved explanation for twentieth century sea-level rise. Models project a continuing sea-level rise during the twenty-first century and beyond. However, a number of uncertainties remain in our understanding of the global mean and regional distribution of sea-level rise resulting from changes in ocean circulation and changes in the Earth’s gravitational field. Ocean-ice-sheet interactions are important for quantitatively estimating future ice-sheet contributions to sea-level rise.