Welfare Gains from Market Insurance: The Case of Mexican Oil Price Risk

Chang Ma · Mr.Fabian Valencia

mar 2018 · International Monetary Fund

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Over the past two decades, Mexico has hedged oil price risk through the purchase of put options. We examine the resulting welfare gains using a standard sovereign default model calibrated to Mexican data. We show that hedging increases welfare by reducing income volatility and reducing risk spreads on sovereign debt. We find welfare gains equivalent to a permanent increase in consumption of 0.44 percent with 90 percent of these gains stemming from lower risk spreads.